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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.

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Sunday 24 March 2024

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - the post-meeting review

After a tremendous day of success in the betting-ring on Thursday, the final day of the Festival was a bit flat for me. 
In the Triumph Hurdle, Majborough made the most of his stamina to sit behind the leaders and stay-on strong to win. Stamina was a factor all through the Festival (due to the ground), and race winners had to be racing prominent: therefore it was so disappointing to see my selection Nurburgring held at the rear until the home turn, and then stay-on well passing beaten horses to be 4th - whoever thought those tactics would work clearly hadn't paid attentioni to the 1st-3 days of the Festival. 
My pair of selections in the County Hurdle were both affected by the ground, with Encanto Bruno (keep a lookout for him) being a non-runner, and King Of Kingsfield being right there at the final flight but not staying on.  Harry Skelton very nearly made it 5 winners for the week with L'Eau Du Sud, who went off the 7/2 Fav. The formbook suggested the Skelton horse was well handicapped, but the horse was certainly showing better form on the home gallops that on the course. Skelton was also responsible for last years fav for this race, Pembroke. You can take nothing away from the winner Absurde, or the training performance of Willie Mullins who has improved this horse with every run over hurdles - will he be as good as another "County" winner for Mullins: State Man?
For the Albert Bartlett Hurdle, my interpretation of the form was decent (in my opinion), with The Jukebox Man running 2nd - as he was 3rd LTO to my selection Captain Teague. It's likely that Captain Teague didn't stay the trip at this level, as the writing was on the wall over half a mile out. He was beaten over 2m5f in November in a Grade 2 when he started odds-on, and perhaps in hindsight I should have paid more attention to that race. I also should have paid a lot more attention to the to the 3-mile trip and the heavy ground on the day: as the race winner Stellar Story was by proven staying sire Shantou and looked sure to appreciate a step-up to 3 miles.
This was the first year I've not had a wager on the actual Cheltenham Gold Cup since I returned to the UK in 1997 after living and working in Hong Kong for 7 years. My antepost wager for the race was Shishkin, and I was on him after he ran a cracker in the "King George" at Kempton on Boxing Day. After Protektorat won the Ryanair Chase, thereby confirming the form of the "Denman" in February which Shishkin won, I'm convinced that Galopin Des Champs would have had to equal or better his 2023 effort to win this race; in the event, he merely cantered to victory having led 2-out.  I had a "place-only" wager on Bravemansgame, but the ground was softer than I expected it to be (the rails are moved and they race on fresh ground in the Gold Cup) and he was passed by a couple of plodders in Gerri Colombe and Corach Rambler. Right now it's difficult to see anything beating Galopin Des Champs next year, certainly none of this years best novice chasers seem capable of stepping-up; and it must also be taken into account that the best staying novice chasers - Corbetts Cross and Fact To File - are trained by Willie Mullins to trains Galopin Des Champs. 

Willie Mullins currently has the jumping game in a stranglehold, and he's absolutely dominating the entire programme.  There's nothing that can (or should) be done to change the rules to "level" the field, as doing that will destroy the integrity of the sport. When I was watching the Cheltenham Festival in the 1980's it was British trainers who dominated the sport, and that dominance was led by trainers like Michael Dickinson based in Yorkshire.  I can't remember the British suggesting back then that the rules of racing be changed to allow the Irish trainers to win a few more races at the Cheltenham Festival.  Horseracing is a "fashion" and always has been; it goes in-and-out of favour depending on who influences it, and where public opinion lies.  
What the BHA should be doing is avoiding shooting itself in the foot: and it does that by providing a template for the sport which exudes excellence and exclusivity. It has to do that as horseracing is incredibly expensive - to keep a horse in training, be it a selling plater or a Derby winner, cost in-excess of £100 a day. Sure, some trainers will offer their services for a bit less (and the more successful ones, a bit more), but the vet's bills, entry fees, transport, farrier, tack etc are the same for every horse.  
The structure of the racing calendar (which is controlled by the BHA) should be about promoting excellence, and if I could suggest one thing to the the BHA it would be to reduce the amount of races at the "bottom-end" and establish a cut-off rating to remove horses which are not good enough. 
The exclusivity of horseracing is essential to attract new owners into the sport and advertisers and race sponsors.  A casual wander through the shopping village at the Cheltenham Festival quickly informs you that the wealthy are there and they want to spend their money.  A few years ago, I spoke to some people who were associated with the Bentley outlet, and I learned that Bentley sold more of their vehicles at the Festival than at any other sporting event in the UK - has Bentley ever sponsored a race at the Festival? The BHA really need to up their game when it comes to race sponsorship, and if they don't have the skills then they should out-source the selection and negotiation of potential race sponsors.  

I expect most readers of this blog will say "what about the ordinary punter?" Horseracing has always been the great social mixing-pot, where people from all types of backgrounds meet on equal terms for one reason: to strike a wager.  That is the sole reason for horseracing; you can talk about improving the breed, but horseracing is about having a wager. If the BHA improve excellence, we have a more competitive sport, and with more competition we have a more opportunities of races without odds-on fav's. And with increased excellence, and emphasis on exclusivity we should see more prestigious race sponsors and increased prize-money. And with more prize money and exclusivity, that should attract new, wealthy owners. So long as the trainers are good enough on both sides of the Irish Sea, to attract the new owners to invest, then we should see the balance of power - currently in favour of Ireland - become more "equal". 

As for the Festival itself from a punters viewpoint, this was the 15th year for me. I first attended in 2004, then in 2007, 2011, and every year since (could not attend in 2021, the year of Covid). The worst year for attending was 2022, as the record attendance and subsequent crowds made the event virtually unbearable. The best year, was when the attendance was blighted by Covid, 2020; as for those attending it was a pleasant experience. If I had control of the Festival, I would limit tickets to 50,000 per day. I have used the "Best Mate" stand several times, and the view from there is superb - for me and a few other Cheltenham regulars, the view of the racing is better than from the "Club", as support pillars obscure a clear view (not so in the "Best Mate").  It just lacks the facilities of the Club/Tattersalls area. As such, I'd significantly reduce the admission charged for entry into the "Best Mate" and make it £20 for the 1st 3-days, and £25 for the Gold Cup. There was a lot of talk on the forums regards prices in the "Club" (to be honest, it's pointless buying a Tattersalls ticket as you cannot gain entry to about 75% of the stands area, and the walkways are so crowded it's near impossible to walk from the paddock to the Tattersalls viewing are during racing). In my opinion, the ticket prices are fair value considering the level of the sport that you have the pleasure of watching. The top price for the FA Cup Final in 2023 was £115, and for that game you are guaranteed only 90 mins of action; a day at the races is approximately 270 minutes long. If the prices to the "Best Mate" are reduced, I'd increase the price of entry to the "Club". 
To be honest, I don't go horseracing with the intention of eating; so if you haven't eaten before you get there, then you are going to have to pay the going price. I've already had a hearty breakfast, and possibly a sandwich or pie on the way to the course. Yes, I do like to have a pint when I'm there, but I'm there for the horseracing, not to get drunk - I can go to the pub and do that without paying an admission fee. As for getting to and from the course, I really cannot see a problem with parking somewhere away from the course and catching a shuttle-bus there and back. Using the shuttle-bus (£4 per per, per trip) was cheaper than a taxi from the centre of town (£21 = £5.25pp; 4 passengers), and also a lot quicker. 

I'm taking a look at the results over the next week or so, and producing a list of possible horses to follow and/or look out for in the coming weeks. So please keep an eye out for messages on "X" (twitter), and make a note to return to the blog over the coming weeks.  

Friday 15 March 2024

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day 4 (15th March)

What a cracking day it was yesterday. 
We started off with a winner in the opening race, when Grey Dawning stayed on best of all to win at odds of 5/2. Then we had a great ew wager on Emitom in the Pertemps Final at 28/1; the day was to get even better.  Protektorat, the selection in the Ryanair Chase, romped home at decent odds of 9/1 (recommended taking on the blog). Finally, we very nearly pulled-off a tremendous wager in the Stayers' Hurdle when Flooring Porter looked to be going on to win, only to be caught and passed on the run-in.

Let's look at Gold Cup day:
1:30pm Triumph Hurdle 4yo's only (2m1f)
This race isn't my usual hunting ground. 
This looks a tricky race for the punter. The fav is Majborough based on his promising debut when staying-on to be 3rd, and he's closely matched with Storm Heart who was 2nd in that race.  Personally, I don't think the winner of this is coming out of that race, which also cancels-out Kargesse who won, and Bunting who was 4th; these horses are too closely matched. I've had Nurburgring in my notebook since Xmas when he ran a cracker, giving weight away, to be 3rd to Kala Conti. Nurburgring is the horse with the most potential at today's trip and on the soft ground. I feel Majborough needs 2m4f already, and the others just aren't quick enough. 
William Hill offer 11/2 on Nurburgring, and there's plenty of 5/1 available; I'm having £5 win.

2:10pm County Hurdle (2m1f)
This is a difficult race. I was not happy Pied Piper (2nd in this race last year) didn't run in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday, but he does run in this. It's a big ask to win this with 12st.  I feel trainer Gordon Elliott is using Pied Piper to allow a lesser-light a decent weight to run off. He has the race-fav King Of Kingsfield who has been running well in races similar to this and looks primed for a big run, but he's only 5/1. Dan Skelton, who won this last year with Faivoir, has had 4 winners this week, and is the handicap king at the Festival. Faivoir could emulate Langer Dan and become a double winner handicap winner, and the horses is in top form just failing to win the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday. Skelton also has L'Eau Du Sud who looks to have been aimed at this race. However, I'm going left-field and Encanto Bruno trained by Gavin Cromwell also looks to have been aimed at this race since winning here over 2m4f last October. Kept quiet since, we know Cromwell can produce one on the day, and so long as he handles the ground, he won't be far away: odds of 33/1 are generally available and I'm having £2.50 eachway (6-places, 5th odds a place).
I would not put you off have a few win wagers on those heading the betting.

2:50pm Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (3-mile)
This looks like being another winner for Willie Mullins via the fav Readin Tommy Wrong, who looks a strong contender.  Personally, I don't think the 2nd-fav Gidleigh Park is the strongest of the British entries, I think it's Captain Teague, who has always been top-drawer, and looks sure to stay the trip well. There's 8/1 available (4-places, 5th odds a place) and I'm having £5 eachway; and I may well have Readin Tommy Wrong and Captain Teague in a Forecast.

3:30pm Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (3m 2f)
Now that Shishkin is a non-runner, I feel that Galopin Des Champs is a near certainty to win this. Shiskin would have given the fav a race, of that there's no doubt following the win yesterday in the Ryanair Chase by Protektorat (beaten easily by Shishkin at Newbury LTO). The 2nd horse home is likely to be Fastorslow, as he's been consistently good over the past 12 months. There are some "exotic" markets on this race, and several bookies have odds to finish in the 1st-3 - so not an eachway wager (win & place), but place-only. To come 3rd maybe Bravemansgame, who was a good 2nd last year, and has been running a bit below that level since then but he's the only horse other that the fav and 2nd-fav who is (in my opinion) capable of running a high 160+ rating. 
William Hill offer 3/1 on Bravemansgame to be in the 1st-3, and I'm having £10 on.

That's it for me. I will probably watch the Hunter Chase and have a small wager on something (probably Premier Magic); and then I will head for the exit and the drive home.  It's been a great week.


Thursday 14 March 2024

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day 3 (14th March)

It's the 3rd day of the Festival, and it's fairly obvious now that the quality of horse trained in the UK - Constitution Hill excluded - is at the poorest level in my lifetime. Maybe I'm being over-dramatic, but I don't know where it goes from here, but if horseracing isn't competitive - Willie Mullins saddled the 1st-5 in the Grade 1 Gallagher Novices Hurdle, from 7 starters - then the majority of supporters will lose interest. 
I had no luck on the day, with both selections not finishing in the places. And the remainder of the card didn't provide betting opportunities except for those fortunate with a lucky pin.

Let's try our hand on Day-3 (Thursday)
1:30pm Turners Novices' Chase (2m4f)
We have 11 runners going to post, which should provide some interest. The fav is Facile Vega, and I expect Mullins will be hoping the extra distance (all chase races have been over 2m1f) will bring about some improvement. Given how testing the ground is, Grey Dawning having won over 3-mile LTO should have sufficient stamina to be involved at the finish.  When they met as hurdlers last season, Grey Dawning got the better of Ginny's Destiny, and if the ground wasn't as soft as it is, I might fancy Ginny's Destiny - but on this ground a horse needs stamina. If Iroko - off the track since early November - wins it will be a helluva training performance, but I can't see that happening. Nothing else looks good enough. For me it's Grey Dawning, but the odds are not attractive enough to warrant advising a wager. However, do not ignore the chance of Letsbeclearaboutit, sent by Gavin Cromwell, ignore LTO as he didn't stay 3-mile on heavy ground but this trip will suit him well - and he wasn't far behind Found A Fifty (2nd in the Arkle this week) on 03Dec - he's worth a small ew at 33/1. 

2:10pm Pertemps Hurdle Final H'cap (3 mile)
One of my favourite races of the season. This is not an easy race to fathom, but you do need a horse that is a proven stayer at the trip, and there are not many of those.  And unless you find a bold front-runner (like Buena Vista) and the benefit of good ground, it's best to have a hold-up horse. 
I've narrowed it down to a couple, Emitom who runs off OR137 and won a decent handicap at Newbury last month, and Gabby's Cross who has been running well recently.  What I like about Emitom is he was 4th in the Stayers' Hurdle in 2020 when rated OR153, and Alan King has revitalised the horse since he started training him.  Gabby's Cross is an OR140 chaser running off OR127.  
Both are worth an eachway wager:
Gabbys Cross:  81 available generally - 6-places, 5th odds
Emitom: 28/1 with Paddy Power - 6-places, 5th odds

2:50pm Ryanair Chase (2m5f)
This race is looking one of the most open Grade 1's of the entire Festival. On the one hand, Envoi Allen won a stronger race last year, but hasn't done much in the past 12 months: should he be the fav? Hitman was 3rd last year and hasn't improved in the last 12 months. Banbridge, despite winning well LTO, does not have suitable ground, and may well be withdrawn. Stage Star won the Turners last year, but I'm not sure he's up to winning this race as you have to take his well-being (he pulled-up LTO when the fav) for granted. Capodanno and Conflated don't look good enough to win over this trip.  The horse that jumps out for me is Protektorat: he has been consistently good this season, running some of his best races in defeat as he's been giving away a lot of weight at times. He's a bold front-runner and this could be his day in the sun - there's plenty of 9/1 and 4-places at 5th odds a place.

3:30pm Stayers' Hurdle (3 miles)
Another race worth having a wager in. Teahupoo had his ground last season and couldn't win.  Is he a better, stronger horse this season? Noble Yeats does not lack stamina, but let's be honest, he was getting 6lb off Paisley Park and only just beat him. If I thought Sir Gerhard would stay this 3-mile trip on soft ground, he would be the selection, but he's never shown the required stamina before. I haven't thought Crambo as good enough to win this since his win at Ascot LTO, and nothing has changed that opinion. If Crambo isn't good enough, neither is Paisley Park; and lightning does not strike twice, so I'm putting a line through Sire Du Berlais as a 12yo. There's one horse who is a proven stayer, proven on the ground,  and ran well in this last season of a short preparation - Flooring Porter. He's had no problems this season with fitness, and he is the dark horse in this race, odds of 14/1 Paddypower look generous. I'm on at 25/1 as I never thought he'd make the grade as a chaser, and I've gone in again at 

I'm going to overlook the Plate at 4:10pm and the Mares' Hurdle at 4:50pm (lack of time), and go to the final race of the day:
5:30pm Kim Muir h'cap chase (3m2f)
Amateur riders are usually best avoided, but you can't do that in this race. The best amateurs ride the best horses, so you have to respect Derek O'Connor on Inothewayyurthinkin the 5/2 fav. The 8yo Amirite has McParlan in the saddle, and this decent stayer could go well. However, the one I like the look of is Bowtogreatness, ridden by Jack Andrews who knows his way around Cheltenham. Still a maiden chaser, he's mainly race over 2m4f but he's twice run at 3-mile coming 2nd at Aintree on 15Apr and 3rd LTO at Kempton which was probably his best effort to date - so he's in form.  He looks well handicapped on OR133.  
Bowtogreatness - £2.50 ew @ 16/1 Bet365 , 6-places 5th odds.

Good luck all.


Wednesday 13 March 2024

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day 2 (Wed 13th March)

Yesterday wasn't the best of days - we came close, but (in horseracing) 2nd isn't good enough.
We started the day fairly well, it was right to oppose the fav Tullyhill in the Supreme Hurdle, but we went for the wrong opposition. I think the testing ground did for Firefox, as he was cruising before 2-out but found nothing from there, staying-on to be 3rd (£5 ew advised @ 13/2, so nothing lost).  The soft/heavy ground requires stamina, and we should see a different Firefox on "good" ground.  Onto the "Arkle" and, as it happened, Gaelic Warrior is the best two-mile chaser we've seen in a few years, he ripped the "Arkle" field apart; my selection Found A Fifty was a gallant 2nd (£5 ew advised @ 15/2, again no money lost). After 2 races we had 2 selections placed at eachway, and we were still in the game. 
I had high hopes for the Ultima Handicap Chase, but my main selection Stumptown didn't appreciate the ground, and made errors. However, I did suggest placing eachway wagers on Twig and Monbeg Genius; and Twig ran a cracker to be 2nd at 28/1. For a moment  as the leaders approached 2-out, I thought he may go on to win, but no. Again, it was stamina that won out on the testing ground. 
That was the end of my luck, as I didn't have any meaningful wagers in the next 3 hurdle races, and in the NH Chase that closed the day, my selection Salvatore Ziggy ran a stinker.   

The 2nd day of the Festival starts with:
1:30pm Gallagher Novices' Hurdle (2m5f)
After Slade Steel won the Supreme Hurdle yesterday, you cannot look anywhere else but at Ballyburn as he easily beat Slade Steel last month. What will come 2nd? Possibly the 6yo Ile Atlantique.

2:10pm Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (3-mile)
Just 6 runners go to post, and yet another odds-on Mullins horse Fact To File is the fav. At the odds, I don't think he's value and I'm going to oppose with Stay Away Fay who we know will stay the trip and handle the track and ground; and I think this one has the stronger form going into this race.  It's particularly pleasing that trainer Paul Nicholls has not entered the horse in any other race; this has always been the target.  I thought this race may cut-up, but not this much, and now I'm wishing I'd had more on Giovinco ew last week at 33/1 (see blog dated 07Mar) as antepost offered 3-places. The 7/2 available for Stay Away Fay looks decent value, and I'm taking that: £10 win.

2:35pm Coral Cup H'cp Hurdle (2m5f)
This will be won by a horse with a lot of stamina, and a touch of class. It's a longshot but I like Benson; a 9yo who will handle the ground, can race up with the pace, or from off the pace, and was 11/1 to win this race last year (pulled-up, never travelling), and is 100/1 with Bet365 (6-places ew, 5th odds), and there's a lot of 66/1 about. Good luck 

3:30pm Champion Chase (2 mile)
There's only one winner of this race, and that's El Fabiolo; the only way he won't win is if he doesn't finish. It could be anything that comes in 2nd, apart from Boothill who only races right-handed. 

4:10pm Cross Country Chase (3m5f)
It's no secret that I'm no fan of this race; I'm not against the type of race, I just don't think it has a place at the Cheltenham Festival. Since becoming level weights, the winner has comes from the top of the betting, so most judges will say there's no point in considering anything at odds longer that 8/1. However, I think Foxy Jacks who won over C&D last November looks poised to run well. Of the market leaders; Coko Beach has been in top form recently.  This is not a betting race for me.

4:50pm Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase H'cp (2-mile)
This is a very competitive race, but the horse that I wanted to run in the race last year IS running in the race this year, and that Saint Roi. He ran 3rd in the Arkle instead, and then ran 2nd at Aintree when just beaten by Banbridge (now the fav for the Ryanair Chase tomorrow).  I think he's been laid-out for this race, and odds of 7/1 (generally available) look fair considering that he's a Festival winner (County Hurdle in 2020). 
£10 win on Saint Roi @ 7/1

5:30 Champion Bumper (2-miles) Flat race
To be honest, I haven't a clue in this race, but if push came to shove I think Jalon D'oudaries looks to have a decent chance and odds of 5/1 look fair.